Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 76786.378217 81101.257462 85418.793047 90060.073750 94905.143497 99810.636721 105149.635857
2026-01-11 69842.243628 76423.738023 83195.564488 90674.538544 98693.369425 107023.398276 116321.298309
2026-01-18 64572.251083 72677.272607 81202.956645 90820.373294 101347.802877 112501.279184 125191.562461
2026-01-25 60544.466071 69782.751180 79682.283954 91047.790130 103702.962917 117328.323430 133073.972355
2026-02-01 57042.904927 67144.262643 78146.861756 90974.772575 105471.615362 121297.992789 139832.337723
2026-02-08 54566.235191 65446.799948 77471.574857 91683.325671 107954.501745 125934.456644 147235.644100
2026-02-15 51966.630768 63436.372920 76285.563937 91664.854104 109485.733263 129398.492052 153240.014156
2026-02-22 50420.930399 62537.161786 76277.643519 92911.053430 112392.793077 134377.254422 160945.832661
2026-03-01 48801.758314 61454.083623 75970.243361 93731.788139 114745.599052 138679.107121 167855.792580
2026-03-08 46836.371419 59862.516828 74978.250532 93666.985713 115994.553088 141651.865366 173192.258126
2026-03-15 45232.092705 58630.618436 74345.877880 93966.682565 117622.527615 145032.499830 178989.353347
2026-03-22 44364.960463 58249.828415 74695.183719 95410.352721 120592.193919 149988.840808 186660.705532
2026-03-29 43302.450558 57598.616795 74698.737275 96431.541869 123069.325436 154398.033138 193751.122573
2026-04-05 42117.533030 56748.822192 74421.044280 97078.915303 125076.177304 158244.269515 200189.309371
2026-04-12 40767.454347 55638.988428 73775.996428 97232.575994 126448.862582 161309.437127 205686.435455
2026-04-19 39542.215907 54642.049310 73230.537292 97472.891642 127899.855994 164454.030232 211280.383152
2026-04-26 38241.468587 53501.666291 72462.570590 97395.668124 128926.133040 167060.854079 216213.157280
2026-05-03 37389.082890 52912.602919 72367.022859 98144.740951 130969.803911 170915.030308 222691.084796
2026-05-10 36243.017028 51898.926551 71692.774354 98125.212261 132022.140359 173529.927455 227638.400316
2026-05-17 35735.199204 51711.599014 72069.240806 99442.548226 134765.130897 178256.821625 235235.393135
2026-05-24 35064.142215 51281.380936 72109.495757 100310.035017 136927.643378 182261.933005 241951.057196
2026-05-31 34038.221432 50339.822361 71450.453231 100241.543987 137870.061389 184722.803195 246731.166774
2026-06-07 33215.759102 49649.924068 71100.884578 100558.295720 139295.618156 187789.869512 252284.300065